Poisson calculator for football
Give each team an expected number of goals and the Poisson model turns them into the chance of every score. With 1.5 for the home side and 1.1 for the away side, the home side wins 46.4% of the time, the draw comes 25.8%, and the most likely single score, 1-1, only 12.3%.
What the model assumes
- Each side's goals follow a Poisson distribution around its expected goals, and the two are independent. Over 2.5 goals then has its own simple law: 48.2% in the example.
- Real matches have slightly more draws and low scores than independent Poisson counts give; serious models add a correction. Treat the output as a baseline, not a forecast.
- The model is only as good as the expected goals you enter. Fair odds are 1 ÷ the chance; a bookmaker's price below them includes its margin.
Compare the fair odds with a bookmaker's using the expected value calculator or strip its margin with the margin calculator.
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