Expected value calculator
The expected value of a bet is its average result over many repetitions. A 55% chance at odds of 1.91 is worth 5.05% of the stake on average; the odds break even at 52.36%.
How it works
- EV per unit = p × decimal odds - 1. Positive means the bet pays more than its risk on average; negative means the opposite.
- Break-even probability = 1 / decimal odds. You need to be right more often than that for a bet to be worth making.
- Your probability is an estimate. The market's own probabilities, with the margin removed, are the usual benchmark: see the margin calculator.
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